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Chart of the Day: IEA’s Fantasy Peak in Global Oil Demand

Summary

The IEA released its outlook to 2030 in which it expects global oil demand to peak in 2029 at 105.6 mb/d. The IEA expects unprecedented surplus global oil supply capacity by 2030! Here is what the IEA said in its report:

“A ramping up of world oil production capacity, led by the United States and other producers in the Americas, is expected to outstrip demand growth over the 2023-2030 forecast period and inflate the world’s spare capacity cushion to levels that are unprecedented, barring the Covid-19 period. Total supply capacity rises by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030, a staggering 8 mb/d above projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d.”

EOA’s Main Takeaway

Just like any other forecast, it depends on the assumptions. The assumptions of the IEA are outrageously out of sync with reality. For example, it assumes that all current government policies on the books will be implemented and succeed 100%! We all know two facts: