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June 30, 2025
Chart of the Day
EOA: Sharp Increase in OPEC+ V8 Crude Exports, Should We Be Worried?
Summary
OPEC+ V8 crude exports rose sharply in June, led by Saudi Arabia (+330 kb/d), UAE (+228 kb/d), Kazakhstan (+149 kb/d), Iraq (+1.43 kb/d), Kuwait (+70 kb/d), and Oman (+40 kb/d). Decreases in Russia (-127 kb/d) and Algeria (-108 kb/d) offset some gains, resulting in a net increase of 724 kb/d, as shown in Figure (1). The figures shows trends in crude exports of each member of the eight countries that agreed to voluntary production cuts.
How impactful are these supply increases? Should we worry about price declines, especially since the OPEC+ V8 will meet on July 6 to determine August production and may raise the production ceiling by 411 kb/d? Discussion below.