Daily Energy Report
Russian crude exports, Putin plans Gulf visit, Saudis cut prices to Asia, India’s non-fossil power, Fusion partnership, Europe’s gas supply, Germany car taxes, and more.
Chart of the Day: Russian Crude Exports Declined Significantly.. but
Figure (1) above shows Russian crude exports by destination in 2023 until last week. It shows a major decline in the last 4 weeks. It also shows that the decline came at the expense of India.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
While some of the decline was intended before the OPEC+ meeting last week, most of it was related to a storm in the Black Sea that halted exports of about 2 mb/d of Russian and Kazakh oil. Recent data, not shown on the chart, shows exports are recovering. It remains to be seen if India’s crude imports from Russia will recover proportionally, or if there is more to the story of the dispute between Russia and India.
As we move to 2024, we will monitor Russian exports and inventories. Exports should decline and inventories should rise. If inventories decline, we will have a new story to tell.
Story of the Day
OPEC+ has indicated willingness to take additional actions beyond the recent agreement to cut oil production by 2.2 mb/d starting January 1 to stabilize the market. This decision aims to manage the typically low demand in Q1. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that further steps would be considered to prevent market volatility. The news comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit the UAE and Saudi Arabia to discuss various topics including the oil market and the Ukraine conflict. The visit, amid efforts by the US and Europe to isolate Russia, underscores the importance of Gulf cooperation for Russia's energy-driven economy. Putin's trip demonstrates Russia's attempt to break out of international isolation and signals a balance in foreign policy interests by the Gulf states.