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Chart of the Day: The IEA Yields, Coal to Remain KING!

Summary

Figure (1) shows trends in coal consumption by region since 2022 with forecasts to 2027. The chart is copied from the IEA coal report that was released today.

Below is an excerpt from the report’s executive summary:

“Global coal demand is expected to grow by 1% in 2024 to an all-time high of 8.77 billion tonnes (Bt). This represents a considerable slowdown in growth from previous years: global coal consumption rose by 7.7% in 2021 as it rebounded from the Covid shock the year before, by 4.7% in 2022 and by 2.4% in 2023. Although industrial consumption also increased over that period, the power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10 700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024.

At the regional level, coal demand in China is expected to grow by 1% in 2024 to reach 4.9 Bt, another record. India is poised to see demand growth of over 5% to 1.3 Bt, a level that only China has reached previously. In the European Union and the United States, coal demand continues to fall, but at a significantly slower pace. It is on track to decline by 12% and 5% respectively this year, compared with 23% and 17% in 2023.”

EOA’s Main Takeaways

Our readers were way ahead of the curve since we told them in 2023 that global coal demand would not peak in 2023 and that we will end up with multiple peaks. There will be a decline in coal demand sometimes because of slow economic growth and mild weather, but that does not mean a final peak. Demand for coal will grow again to a new peak.

Now let’s look at the IEA’s history forecasting global coal demand: