DAILY ENERGY REPORT
Russia’s oil exports to Turkey, oil prices, OPEC forecasts, offshore activities and more
CHART OF THE DAY
Russia’s Exports of Petroleum Products to Turkey (kbd)
Source: Kpler, 2023 and EOA, 2023
Russia’s oil product exports to Turkey surged last month to around 383,000 barrels per day (b/d) compared to 144,000 b/d during the same month last year, data from Kpler shows. This sharp increase followed Europe’s ban on Russian petroleum products which went into effect on February 5. Russia’s exports to Turkey have been rising since December 2022, and we expect them to remain elevated in the next few months.
Earlier this month, Reuters said that following the EU ban on Russia’s oil products, Russian diesel cargoes were diverted away from Europe to Africa and Asia, while ship-to-ship (STS) transfers increased.
EOA’s Main Takeaway:
It’s unclear how much of this volume was bound for local consumption in Turkey and how much was meant to be re-exported. Turkey, along with other countries such as India and China, are key countries that could help Moscow re-export some of its oil products, mainly diesel, and gasoil, including to Europe.
Unlike crude oil, it is difficult to trace petroleum products to their true origins, and even some European countries have admitted that it will still be possible for Russian oil to reach Europe despite sanctions. “The possibility of Russian crude oil or petroleum products entering Europe indirectly cannot be completely excluded, because supplies are sometimes mixed elsewhere, and the origins are difficult to trace,” the government of the Netherlands said on February 10.
STORY OF THE DAY
REUTERS: Oil prices ease to 5-week low on fallout from U.S. bank shutdowns
Oil prices declined by more than 1% on Tuesday to a five-week low on fear of a financial crisis and a recession after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). A recession usually reduces oil demand and consequently oil prices.