Daily Energy Report
EU Gas imports by source, US oil gusher hits EU, Biden’s EV tariffs, TV hypes gasoline prices, Russian exports to Singapore, EV’s & economy, Repsol CEO: more subsidies is needed, and more.
Chart of the Day: EU Gas Imports by Source in April, 2024
Summary
The EU’s LNG imports increased by 8.7% month-on-month in April for the first time since December, reaching 8.38 million tons (equivalent to 11.48 bcm of re-gasified LNG), Kpler’s data shows. France was the top importer in the region with 2.8 bcm, followed by the Netherlands (2 bcm), and Spain (1.53 bcm).
From the LNG supply side, the US remained the EU’s top LNG supplier, accounting for 46% of delivered LNG cargoes into the bloc, followed by Russia (19%), Algeria (11%), and Qatar (10%). The European commission is reportedly considering imposing sanctions on Russian LNG that would restrict re-exports of Russian cargoes offloaded at European LNG terminals to other markets.
Looking at the full picture, the LNG segment accounted for 45.6% of the EU’s total gas (and LNG) imports, while piped natural gas accounted for the remaining share (54.4%). In April, Norway supplied 29.6% of the EU’s total gas imports, while US LNG accounted for 20.9%. Russia (including its LNG exports) retained a share of 18%, surpassing Algeria (piped gas and LNG) which supplied 16.6% of the EU’s total imports, as shown in Figure (1) above.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
We reiterate our view that Europe is not out of the woods yet. Any major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and/or a severe winter will increase prices and increase dependence on Russian gas.
TTF prices could see additional gains only if market fundamentals change in the next few months. We are mainly referring to Norway’s extensive maintenance program in the summer, and the reduction in US shale gas production in response to a low-gas price environment. With respect to a possible EU ban on Russian LNG, we believe that such a measure is not feasible in the short term, given that Russian gas meets nearly 20% of the EU’s total LNG needs.
Story of the Day
Bloomberg: Fresh Gush of US Oil Drives Down the Price of Crudes in Europe
Summary
A surge in US oil exports is lowering physical crude prices in Europe and West Africa as the peak demand season approaches. Shipments to Europe are expected to hit 2.1 mb/d up a third from April. WTI Midland has dropped to a year-low, while key North Sea crude Forties fell by nearly $1 in a week. High US crude flows have softened prices and weakened related derivatives, with Nigerian crude still unsold.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
The story is misleading on several fronts. Here are four reasons: