Daily Energy Report
OPEC production, SCOTUS climate case, Shell-Canadian LNG, Saudis cut Arab Light, Oil speculators bearish, Trans Mountain update, Ethiopia Red Sea deal, Oil/gas education org, and more.
Chart of the Day: While OPEC Production Decreased YoY, Oil Exports Did Not!
According to the EIA, OPEC total oil production declined by 0.714 mb/d from 34.11 mb/d in 2022 to 33.4 mb/d in 2023. The IEA number is lower at 0.680 mb/d. OPEC estimates are close to the EIA number at around 0.710 mb/d.
The above numbers are for total liquids production. The OPEC quota focuses only on crude. Figure (1) above shows OPEC crude oil production as reported by secondary sources in the OPEC Monthly Oil Report. Based on current estimates, OPEC crude oil production declined in 2023 by an average of 0.738 mb/d relative to the average of 2022.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
As OPEC crude production declined by more than 700 kb/d, the average of total oil exports (total liquids) in 2023 was flat: the same as that of 2022! Crude exports declined by only 47 kb/d in 2023! This supports the idea that the issue in 2023 was mainly demand. The NET amount of the “surprise” increase in production is limited. Demand declined in the oil-producing countries, which enabled them to export the same amount, on average, despite production cuts.
Story of the Day
The U.S. Supreme Court has refused to hear a request by major fossil fuel companies and the American Petroleum Institute to transfer a climate change lawsuit from Minnesota's state court to federal court. The companies had challenged a decision by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which ruled that the state court was the correct venue for Minnesota’s lawsuit alleging deceptive marketing practices by the energy industry that downplayed the risks of climate change.