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Chart of the Day: Can Trump’s enforcement of sanctions on Iran reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly as it did during his first term?

Summary

Figure (1) shows trends in Iran’s seaborne crude and petroleum products exports. Almost all have been going to China in recent months through various channels to avoid the impact of US sanctions. Iran’s oil exports increased substantially during the Biden administration. We explained in a previous report why the Biden administration ignored Trump’s sanctions on Iran. We also covered such data a few days ago.

We start the year answering one of the most important questions in the oil market in 2025: Can Trump’s enforcement of sanctions on Iran reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly as it did during his first term?

EOA’s Main Takeaways

Can Trump’s enforcement of sanctions on Iran reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly as it did during his first term?

No. The year 2025 is not 2019. Here are some differences: