Daily Energy Report
IEA contributes to volatility, EU waste exports, China’s crude imports slip, IEA vs OPEC estimates, US meets with Venezuela, ADNOC eyed BP, Giant California battery plant, and more.
IEA Exposed:
Summary
The IEA is contributing to volatility and uncertainty in energy markets due to inconsistency in its analysis. In 2018 the IEA said the world needed more investment in oil/gas, but in 2023 the message had flipped in spite of the fact that the world needs even more oil/gas today. The IEA has radically changed its recommendations even over a period of months.
Chart of the Day
Exposing the Hypocrisy: EU’s Waste Exports by Destination
Summary
Figure (1) above shows exports of waste by EU members to other states. Most waste exports go to Turkey, followed by India then the UK. Egypt, Norway, and Switzerland are all tied at 1.6 mt.
Most of the waste is iron, steel, paper and plastic. The assumption here is that all these exports are designated for recycling.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
Waste is one of the biggest secrets despite the massive global trade in it. The movement of such waste not only exposes the hypocrisy of climate change policies, but also involves energy demand: shipping, recycling, and disposal.
The chart above shows only the countries that import waste form the EU, but the global picture of waste is ugly and depressing. The industrial waste is massive and most of it is not even recycled. For example, the largest producer/exporter of plastic waste is China. The largest importer is one of the poorest countries in the world: Sri Lanka!
While the US, the EU, and Japan are fighting plastic pollution, they are the largest producers and exporters of plastic waste. That applies to metal scraps and paper, too. While they do not recycle, they ship the waste to other countries to be “recycled”, but in many cases this waste is buried in landfills or burned, increasing the amount of CO2 in the air. A massive amount of plastic waste is dumped in rivers and in the ocean. China, Indonesia, and India have the most polluted rivers in the world.
Bottom line: before banning plastic bags and plastic straws, recycle what you have! Exporting plastic waste will more than likely lead to it being burned or dumped into waterways in other countries!
Here is some reading material for those interested in the topic:
Rich Countries Are Illegally Exporting Plastic Trash to Poor Countries
The Open Burning of Plastic Wastes is an Urgent Global Health Issue
‘Waste colonialism’: world grapples with west’s unwanted plastic
No ‘Away’: Why is the U.S. Still Offshoring Plastic Waste Around the World
Only 5% of plastic waste generated by US last year was recycled, report says
Story of the Day
Reuters: China’s March Crude Imports Slip 6%, but Rise Slightly in Q1
Summary
China's crude oil imports in March dropped by 6.23% from last year, with a notable surge in Russian oil due to sanctions. First-quarter imports marginally rose, while experts predict the high intake of Russian crude won't persist. Weak domestic demand contrasts with strong manufacturing and increased flight capacity, boosting jet fuel needs. Additionally, record-high natural gas imports were driven by plummeting global LNG prices.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
We are not surprised in the least that March crude imports declined.
Figure (2) below shows the increase in crude oil imports year-over-year. Figure (3) shows that crude oil imports increased in the first quarter of 2024 relative to that of 2023.
While we maintain our view that the global oil demand story remains China’s story (not India’s as some have claimed), we would like to warn our readers that China’s oil exports are increasing by more than the increase in its imports. This explains the decline in Chinese inventories which we discussed in previous reports several times. The Chinese are refining stored crude they bought at lower prices and are now selling the products at current high prices. Our readers know from our reports that China withdrew crude from its inventories when prices were increasing to prevent them from increasing further. China withdrew more than 90 mb since last August.
To sum up: the decline in imports in March and the continued withdrawal form inventories fits well with our view that China does that every time oil prices increase. (This is just a smart economic decision, one that the US should emulate.) It has nothing to do with economic activities within China. Those who are interested in this issue may want to review previous reports to see the inventory charts.
News of the Day
Bloomberg: OPEC Makes Case for Oil Supply Restraints to Ease
Reuters: IEA Trims Oil Demand Forecast on Weakness in Wealthier Countries