Daily Energy Report
Record oil demand in 2024, US oil inventories, US dry gas production at record high, India oil consumption by 2030, Qatar delays LNG, US Senate CO2 tax, Cheap Russian crude, Japan LNG, and more.
Chart of the Day: Oil Demand in 2024 Expected to be Highest on Record
Summary
Figure (1) above shows global demand estimates in 2023 and 2024 by the IEA, OPEC, and the US EIA. While all show an increase in 2024 over that of 2023, and all expect global oil demand to hit a new record in 2024, they differ in the growth rate. The IEA expects world oil demand to grow by 1.24 mb/d in 2023. OPEC’s number is 2.25 mb/d. The EIA pegs it at 1.39 mb/d.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
Do not be disturbed by the large differences in forecasts of growth in global oil demand in 2024. They still have large differences in their estimates for growth in 2023 as we outlined in this report: Global Oil Demand: Asia vs. the West
OPEC’s estimates of growth are too high. Oil demand has recovered from the COVID-19 lockdowns and now we are back to normal. However, we live in two different worlds. Just like 2023, parts of the world will experience an increase in oil demand as their economies grow, while other parts will experience lower demand as their economies struggle. In addition, while growth in demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel will decline significantly relative to that of last year, we might see large growth in Naphtha and LPG as petrochemical activities ramp up, especially in China. Our estimate of the average growth in global oil demand in 2024 is 1.4 mb/d, very close to that of the EIA. It is higher than that of the IEA and way lower than that of OPEC.