Daily Energy Report
Daily Energy Report
OPEC production decline, IEA vs OPEC oil forecasts, CA fracking ban, US sanctions impact, India asks to join OPEC, China teapot profits, Mexico fossil fuel use, John Kerry theatrics, and more.
Chart of the Day: Large Decline in OPEC Production
Summary
OPEC crude oil production declined by 350 kb/d from 26.692 mb/d in December to 26.342 mb/d in January, according to OPEC Monthly Oil report released earlier today. Figure (1) above shows trends in OPEC’s monthly crude oil production since 2019. The January production level is lower than that of January 2019 by a whopping 3 mb/d!
EOA’s Main Takeaway
Most of the decline came from Libya because of the closure of Sharara and El-Feel oil fields. Now that production has resumed, we will see a rebound in February. Production declined in Kuwait by 109 kb/d and in Iraq by 98 kb/d mostly to fulfill the commitment for the voluntary cuts. Figure (2) below shows details of OPEC production by country as reported by secondary sources.
Figure (2)
Story of the Day
Bloomberg: IEA Expects Moderate Oil Market Prices in 2024
WSJ: OPEC Sticks to Oil Demand Growth View
Reuters: OPEC Sticks to Oil Demand View on Better Economic Growth
Summary
The IEA forecasts a "comfortable" global oil market for 2024, with new supplies expected to meet demand and stabilize prices. Global oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 to 1.3 mb/d in 2024. This demand increase will likely be covered by rising production in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. OPEC maintains its projection for global oil demand growth in 2024 at 2.25 mb/d (nearly double the IEA’s forecast) and 1.85 mb/d in 2025.