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June 02, 2025

Chart of the Day

EOA: The Increase in Supply by the OPEC+ Group of 8 is Merely Compensating for the Decline in Supplies from the Americas

Summary

Crude exports of the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador have declined by 977 kb/d in May MoM and more than 1 mb/d YoY as shown in Figure (1).

EOA’s Main Takeaway

While the decline in crude exports is significant, it's more notable when we consider that the OPEC+ V8's export increase will merely offset these declines. Our view is that the production increase isn't bearish has been vindicated.