Daily Energy Report
OPEC+ exports, Turkey oil to Israel, US sanctions Iranian tankers, Chase rejects transition finance, Qatar LNG to China, Gazprom payments, Saudi pricing for Asia, China-Siberia pipeline, and more.
Chart of the Day: OPEC+ Seaborne Crude Exports Increased in November
Summary
Figure (1) shows an updated chart of OPEC+ seaborne crude exports in 2024 with November data. It shows an increase in the exports of the group by about 400 kb/d MoM from 27.374 mb/d to 27.775 mb/d. While most of the increase came from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya, and Nigeria, exports from Russia and Iraq declined. The most important item here is the increase in Kazakhstan’s exports.
EOA’s Main Takeaway
We expected this increase last month simply because most of this increase should have happened in October at the end of summer. Despite this increase, the total export level remains below that of May 2024. In other words, this increase should not be a concern since some of it is a recovery, especially in Libya and Nigeria.
The decline in Russian exports of 200 kb/d is significant. The decline in Iraq’s seaborn crude exports of 63 kb/d is welcome news but Iraq needs to do more to comply. The problem now is Kazakhstan. It increased exports significantly in November. The lack of compliance by Iraq and Kazakhstan is already casting its shadow on the V8 meeting on December 10 as shown in the two news stories:
Saudi, Russia, Kazakhstan hold talks ahead of weekend OPEC+ meeting
Saudi, Iraqi, Russian delegations discuss oil in Baghdad ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Story of the Day: Turkey’s Oil Shipments to Israel
Middle East Eye: New Evidence Reveals Oil Shipments from Turkey to Israel Continue Despite Embargo
Turkish Minute: Evidence Suggests Turkey Continues Oil Shipments to Israel Despite Embargo
Daily Sabah: Türkiye Rejects Claims of Oil Flowing to Israel from Ceyhan
English News: Türkiye Denies Oil Exports to Israel
Summary
Despite Turkey's trade embargo on Israel since May, research suggests crude oil shipments from Turkey's Ceyhan port to Israel continue. A tanker carrying Azeri crude reportedly turned off its tracking signal en route to Israel and was later detected at an oil terminal near Ashkelon. This shipment is part of a broader pattern, with Azerbaijan’s oil exports to Israel increasing fourfold in 2024.Critics argue these shipments fuel Israel’s military operations in Gaza.