Daily Energy Report
OPEC revises oil down, Russia gas to EU, Hurricane Francine, LNG demand to surge, Danish strait spill danger, EU gas purchase idea, Permian gas pipelines, China oil products, and more.
Note: Due to a scheduling conflict, we will post a short version of the Daily Energy Report tomorrow, Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2024.
Oil prices declined by 4% today. We will cover oil market development and other issues in X Spaces this evening before the debate between Harris and Trump: https://x.com/Greencandleit/status/1833484467173732523
Chart of the Day: As Expected, OPEC Revised Down its Estimate of Growth in Global Oil Demand
WSJ: OPEC Trims Oil Demand Outlook Further Amid Price Slump
Reuters: OPEC Again Lowers s2024, 2025 Global Oil Demand Growth View
Summary
OPEC has cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast for the second month in a row, lowering the expected rise to 2.03 mb/d from 2.11 mb/d. This revision reflects recent data and ongoing uncertainty about China's economic outlook and the global transition to cleaner fuels.
OPEC remains optimistic about China's economic growth but acknowledges challenges in the real estate sector, as well as rising use of LNG trucks and electric vehicles.
Figure (1) shows global demand estimates for 2023, 2024, and 2025 by the IEA, EIA, and OPEC. It shows OPEC’s original estimate vs the revised estimates. In general, they all expect a continued growth in demand, rebuking all those who claimed that global oil demand has peaked. While it is difficult to make a comparison based on demand levels because of definitional issues and previous estimates, it is logical to make comparisons based on the rate of growth as we will see below.