Daily Energy Report

Global oil demand and Electric vehicles, UAE and OPEC, Russia, Iran, China, India and more

CHART OF THE DAY: Bullish for oil medium and long term  

Figure (1)

Number of Cars in the World vs. Electric Vehicles (Four Scenarios, billion cars)

Source: EOA, 2023 and EIA, 2023

Commentary:

To meet future energy demand, the world needs all types of energy sources, as well as the required technologies that can help reduce global pollution, which according to the World Bank is “the largest environmental cause of disease and premature death.”

We support all energy sources, including wind and solar, and all transportation technologies, including hybrid, electric, and hydrogen. But we are against hype.

The impact of hype and its cost on society is massive.  The hype around renewables and electric vehicles leads to a decline in investments in other energy sources, which in its turn creates an energy crisis accompanied by inflation and low economic growth.

This brings us to the Chart of the Day: Figure (1) above shows the current number of cars in the world, including electric vehicles. It reveals the total number of cars expected by 2040, a number that is close to various forecasts, including that of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).  The chart also shows various scenarios for electric vehicles: 140 million, 280 million (double the first scenario), 510 million (what’s needed to keep the number of ICE vehicles in 2040 similar to today’s number), and 600 million (which is a high-end number). 

EOA’s Five Takeaways:

1. We are bullish on oil in the medium and long term relative to current forecasts by various international organizations, banks, and oil majors. Readers can choose other numbers for electric vehicles (all types)— try to keep it a realistic number. But even if you pick a different number, you will realize the hype we mentioned above.