Daily Energy Report
IEA revises 2024 oil demand downward, Russia’s fuel exports, EU’s gas tradeoffs, Google’s SMR push, Nigeria’s rickety grid, Petrobras politics, US crude stocks, China’s overseas coal plants, and more.
Chart of the Day: IEA Revised Down Its Estimates of Growth of Global Oil Demand
IEA: Oil Market Report - October 2024
Reuters: IEA Sees Oil Surplus Looming, Reassures on Iran Supply Risk
WSJ: IEA Trims Oil-Demand Forecast for Third Consecutive Month
Summary
The IEA predicts a significant oil surplus in the coming year, assuring markets it is ready to act if supply disruptions from Iran occur. The IEA lowered its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 40 kb/d to 862 kb/d due to weaker demand in China. Oil demand is expected to rise by 860 kb/d this year and 1 mb/d next year, with Chinese growth now forecasted at 150 kb/d in 2024.
Despite the expectation of a surplus in 2025, the IEA REVISED UP its estimates for growth in global oil demand by 50 kb/d to 998 kb/d.
The IEA estimates overproduction by “OPEC+ 18,” the countries that are subject to the quota, which includes the V8 with voluntary cuts, to be around 720 kb/d. Russian production was flat in September, MoM, at 9.11 mb/d but crude exports increased by 500 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d.
Non-OPEC nations like the US, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil are set to increase supply by 1.5 mb/d this year and next.