Daily Energy Report
Chart of the Day: EU Dependence on Russian Gas is Increasing
Summary
Figure (1) shows Gazprom gas exports to Europe and Ukraine. It shows the sharp decline after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then the slow and small recovery this year relative to that of last year.
Total gas shipments from Russian energy giant Gazprom to Europe (EU and Ukraine) via current operational routes, increased by 15.7% month-on-month in July and by 6.1% year-on-year for the seventh month in a row since the beginning of 2024. Exports to Europe notably increased to 2,728 million cubic meters (mcm) in July, up from 2,570 mcm during the same month last year, based on the EOA’s calculations and data from the European gas transmission platform (ENTSOG).
Gazprom shipped 1,297 mcm of gas via Ukraine through the Sudja gas station on the Russian-Ukrainian border. While daily gas exports through the Sudja metering point remained stable month-on-month at 41.8 mcm in July, they were slightly higher than volumes in July 2023, our calculations show. Austria and Slovakia are the main EU buyers of Russian gas delivered via Ukraine.
Ukraine also supplies non-EU Moldova with Russian gas through Grebenyky and Oleksiivka. These two exit points received 143 mcm of Russian gas in July, according to the gas transmission system operator of Ukraine (GTSOU).
As we highlighted in previous reports, Gazprom will continue to ship gas via Ukraine until the current 5-year transit deal expires by the end of 2024. Although neither Ukraine nor the EU is interested in extending this historic deal, we believe that some European buyers will find a technical way to keep receiving gas via Ukraine and ensure that flows are maintained to Slovakia and other European markets beyond 2024. Furthermore, Moscow has expressed its interest to continue supplying gas to its existing EU customers.
Meanwhile, Gazprom’s total gas exports via the TurkStream pipeline passing through Turkey rebounded in July to 1,431 mcm, up from 1,105 mcm the previous month when the pipeline underwent a week-long planned maintenance. Exports were even higher than volumes for the same month last year when total shipments amounted to 1,298 mcm. Hungary and Serbia, which have maintained strong diplomatic ties with Moscow, are the main buyers of Russian gas delivered via TurkStream.